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Who can guess my measurements DrewDown in 2019 t

Who can guess my measurements DrewDown in 2019 t

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The bad news is that since April 2010 the 10y-3m yield curve has been steadily flattening. The curve has begun tracking the long-term trend line much closer ...

As we approach 2019, are you bullish or bearish on U.S. stocks/your preferred asset class?

But the bond market is pricing in far fewer hikes due to declining growth and inflation expectations.

... have fallen recently to 1.2% (for Consumer Price Index) while long-term (10 and 30-year) expectations are now below the Fed's 2.0% long-term target.

Historical S&P 500 Price Performance

(Source: New York Federal Reserve)

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e6/Gamma_distribution_pdf.svg (if the inage shows up, the ...

S&P 500 forward P/E ratio historical chart

Science: The Deep Ocean Plays A 'Leading Role' In Global Warming. It's Colder Now Than During The 1700s.

Goldman Sachs S&P 500 earnings and price target and 10-year treasury yield target

Could We Be Looking At A Repeat Of 2014?

(Source: Morningstar)

The following indicators look to credit spreads and yield curves to derive recession probabilities (charts via GS). The combined model currently indicates a ...

... Causes and consequences by Jean-Claude Gascard, Jinlun Zhang and Mehrad Rafizadeh in The Cryosphere Discussions, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2019-2.

http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2019 /01/Global-Ocean-Heat-Content-vs-CO2-last-2000-yrs-Gebbie-Huyber-2019.jpg

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With large supply overhangs like this, it typically takes the market a number of attempts before it can break through and move to new highs.

Over multicentennial time scales, changes in upper and deep ocean heat content have similar ranges, underscoring how the deep ocean ultimately plays a ...

Over multicentennial time scales, changes in upper and deep ocean heat content have similar ranges, underscoring how the deep ocean ultimately plays a ...

My best estimate for when a recession is likely to start (based on the 10y-3m curve flattening) is in 23.5 to 30.5 months (December 2020 to July 2021). That ...

Like the valuation measures, current trend indicators are urging caution. But again, the question is how are these indicators useful to investors?

What did Lawrence McMillan write on Friday?

The policies that work and how much they contribute. Energy Innovation

January 16, 2019

Bloomberg reports that Morgan Stanley analysts have built a quantitative model to measure the impact of ...

and the fact that delays in emission reductions are cumulative – the carbon price needs to ramp up to something quite stiff to make a dent in the major ...

sectoral GHG reductions

These past few months that to some have felt like "market hell" has actually been a totally average correction. If you've been losing sleep over ...

Schematic diagram of the measurements of ice-cliff backwasting.

Skill Ratio: A New Measure for the (Lack of) Persistence in Active Management | CFA Institute Enterprising Investor

The aerial image of the Seattle waterfront shows locations of satellite radar altimetry points TRE Altamira

An obsession with calls for THE market top. Why not, the equity market as measured by the S&P 500 has been on an incredible bull market journey.

Credit: Steffen et al. (2018)

picture of car upside down in the snow

The EIA is expecting World C+C to reach just over 99 million barrels per day in 2040. That will be up 21.25 million bpd from 2014.

This is typically found on the device you are running; for light bulbs it will be in watts and you need ...

The below chart shows the historical spread between expensive and cheap stocks on a variety of valuation measures. Expensive stocks are more expensive ...

The best things in life are Pink.: Figuring out measurements for a card sketch

As you can see the gradient is 0.1°C per decade during last 40 years when truly global satellite measurement of temperature was possible.

China leads the pack with 40% of all sales. Here in California, sales just reached half a million, with one million nationwide. Prices continue to fall, ...

rcps.jpg

Two centuries of climate science - the timeline

(Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis)

What about the bear market that investors are actually worried about (and why we watch the yield curve to know when a recession is likely coming)? Well, ...

How Are You Personally Positioning Your Portfolio For 2019 (And Beyond)

The study on collapse they thought you should not read – yet « Professor Jem Bendell

Put a dollar value on it: engineers, ecologists and risk modelers team up to measure the value of coastal wetlands for reducing hurricane risk.

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... European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi has done “whatever it takes” to keep the euro and the Eurozone's economy on the road – but 2019 will ...

SII 2019 – Year 3 Program

For example, over the past 40 years, the average TTM PE for the S&P 500 has been 20.2 at a time when the average 10-year yield was 6.3%.

For 2019, I kept my finance and business goals fairly similar (just bumping up some of the numbers) and kept many similar personal goals (just added a few).

Debt monetization isn't just important, it will become a necessity. Otherwise rates normalize and the party ends in a very bad way (insolvency and/or ...

2019 Fed Rate Hike chart

This is likely to end up hurting the average investor, who over the past 20 years, thanks to such attempts at market timing, has managed to drastically ...

1 Full presentation2017-4.pptx.jpg

Chris does a good job of laying out how the leasing business works and why AL is a standout name in the industry. I haven't dug into the name myself but it ...

(If not, you can skip down to the non-financial background flowchart below.)

This chromatogram illustrates how gasoline can overlap into the diesel-range. The diesel results

All That and a Stack of Paper Scrapbook T-Shirt

@jzikah has a new book! Cartoon President http://amzn.to/2QUeZhk

Weighted %age Probability Sales Forecasting Explained

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The fund's calculations find Greece's debt costs will “begin an uninterrupted rise” after 2038 — costing around 20% of the country's GDP every year.

Zanna et al 2019

cafe standards

You may draw your own conclusions as to whether the adjusted data shows acceleration (an increase in ppm/yr) over recent years, or indeed what should ...

What allocation to stocks could you hold in order to not lose money over a rolling given length of time?

On Basketball: Harden's run should end when he gets help

Fig. 1.

Shown are relative changes per decade compared to 2010-2019 for three different climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, ...

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A snapshot from the Energy Policy Simulator.

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Notes from Steven Keleti to accommodate the map -- Hello all, Quick summary: We need more help in Iowa, Illinois, Ohio, Kansas, Kentucky and Missouri to ...

He affirms that in 2019, for investors with an appetite for risk, equity market returns are expected to be higher than those of other asset class.

Exhibit 3. Recession Takes Toll On Auto Fuel

Here are the periods when the S&P 500 equal-weighted index underperformed the market-capitalized index with the corresponding level of underperformance.

Exhibit 2. Miles Driven And Fuel Use Move In Sync

Bob Lang @aztecs99 – Jan 9 – vix down sharply this week, TRIN at .60, oscillators swelled…hard to keep this going. suspect down coming shortly.

Personal Capital Asset Allocation

Optical Illusions: When Your Brain Can't Believe Your Eyes

2019-new-year-robot-future.jpg

It will, however, be more relevant at this juncture to pinpoint factors that can influence the economic course going forward.

References

(Source: Barron's)

I really don't understand why you can't just tell RICKA that there is essentially no coal left in the UK. The coal mines gradually closed as reserves ...

Crafty Girl Typographic Print - - if only it said "person" instead of "girl". I guess i could make it myself. Non binary crafters 4 life!

If you've been keeping an eye on the US economy in recent years, you might notice that things are looking pretty darned rosy. Unemployment is at its lowest ...

If a paper product is not available with recycled content, try to find one with the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) symbol, indicating that it's made from ...

+311,000 at the last report for December closing out a great year with 2.46 million more people working than at the beginning of 2018.